Australian labour market – getting worse due to policy failure

Last month the Australian labour market went backwards. That trend is now consolidating and the policy makers seem to be finally getting their wish – to put an increasing number of Australian workers out of work. Two years ago, the official unemployment rate was 3.5 per cent. Now it is 4.5 per cent. That is an extra 153 thousand workers who are now jobless. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (October 16, 2025) – Labour Force, Australia – for September 2025, which reveals that the growth in the labour force is outstripping employment growth with the consequence that unemployment has risen rather sharply in September – by 0.2 points. Underemployment also rose by 0.2 points and there are now 10.4 per cent of available labour not being used in one form or another. Meanwhile, if you ring the technocrats at the RBA they will tell you that we have adjusted close to full employment. And for that they should be sacked for incompetence in public office. It is ludicrous to talk about Australia being close to full employment. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.

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Kyoto Report 2025 – 3

This Tuesday report will provide some insights into life for a westerner (me) who is working for an extended period at Kyoto University in Japan but who over the years of working here has increasingly began to understand the language and local cultural traditions.

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Japan – the challenges facing the new LDP leader – Part 3

This is a third part of an as yet unknown total, where I investigate possible new policy agendas, which are designed to meet the challenges that Japan is facing in the immediate period and the years to come. The first two parts were written in the context of the elevation of Ms Takaichi to the LDP presidency. It was anticipated that she would then become the Prime Minister as a result of commanding a majority on the floor of the Diet, with help from long-standing coalition partner Komeito. However, in the last few days, things have changed considerably in Japan with Komeito withdrawing from the ruling coalition and throwing the question of who will become the Prime Minister up in the air. One of the issues that are shaping what happens next is the question of social security sustainability as the society ages. This divides the parties and will help to determine the configuration of the next government in Japan.

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Japan – the challenges facing the new LDP leader – Part 2

This is a second part of an as yet unknown total, where I investigate possible new policy agendas, which are designed to meet the challenges that Japan is facing in the immediate period and the years to come. This is also in the context of the elevation of Ms Takaichi to the LDP presidency and soon Prime Minister. She has suggested that her policy agenda will shift somewhat from the current government position, in the sense that she wants lower interest rates, while the majority of economists want higher, and she is advocating further fiscal expansion, while the mainstream want austerity. In the first part I examined the inflation issue in Japan, which suggests that the mainstream view that rates have to rise is misguided. Today, I am considering the scope for fiscal expansion.

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Kyoto Report 2025 – 3

This Tuesday report will provide some insights into life for a westerner (me) who is working for an extended period at Kyoto University in Japan but who over the years of working here has increasingly began to understand the language and local cultural traditions

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Japan – the challenges facing the new LDP leader

This will be a series of blog posts where I analysis the period ahead for Japan under the new LDP leadership of Ms Sanae Takaichi. The motivation is that on November 7, 2025, the research group I am working with at Kyoto University will be staging a major event at the Diet (Parliament) Building in Tokyo where I will be one of the keynote speakers. The strategic intent of the event is to outline a new policy agenda to meet the challenges that Japan is facing in the immediate period and the years to come. It is highly likely that the Lab Director here at Kyoto, who promotes and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) perspective and was formerly the special advisor to the Shinzo Abe, will return to that position under Ms Takaichi. This gives the event increased importance for outlining an Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)-based perspective. Today, I examine the inflation issue in Japan.

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My current number one candidate for the worst economics article of the year

Unfortunately, the so-called progressive UK Guardian has an Australian economics editor who is anything but if his economic analysis is anything to go by. The economic news for this week started with the release of the – Final Budget Outcome – (FBO) for the 2024-25 fiscal year for the Federal government (released September 29, 2025). It showed the actual fiscal deficit for the year just gone was slightly lower than had been predicted in earlier official statements. The government celebrated claiming a lower deficit was a sign not only of its good management but was also virtuous. The journalists, however, had a different spin, claiming that while the situation could have been worse, it was still bad. The discussion in the media and the official statement from the Treasurer seemed to omit one rather important fact. The context. This allows us to understand the distinction between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ fiscal deficits, a distinction that the commentariat seems unable to grasp. Anyway, this UK Guardian article is my current number one candidate for the worst economics article of the year. Why discuss it? Because it helps illustrate the essentials of macroeconomics that people need to understand.

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Kyoto Report 2025 – 2

This Tuesday report will provide some insights into life for a westerner (me) who is working for an extended period at Kyoto University in Japan but who over the years of working here has increasingly began to understand the language and local cultural traditions

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Argentina entering the usual doom loop that austerity inevitably creates

‘A picture is worth a thousand words’ is an old adage, which means that some image can express a very complex message more quickly than a written tract – of the sort that will follow in this blog post. At the Spring 2025 meetings of the IMF in Washington, the IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva was ebullient about how well Argentina was doing as a result of the harsh austerity (‘shock therapy’) that the current President Javier Milei has unleashed on his nation. If you watch the IMF boss please also have a brown bag handy for the obvious nausea that will follow. The scene became even more bizarre when the new Minister of Deregulation and State Transformation. aka El Coloso, one Federico Sturzenegger, during a panel with others including Rachel Reeves, pinned a little badge of a chainsaw to Georgieva’s lapel. It was all very lavish and symbolic and ignored the plight that these elites have imposed on ordinary citizens back in Argentina. What is happening back in Argentina is once again demonstrating how the ideology of austerity initially promises the world to the citizens only to backfire and turn to crisis.

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Bank of Japan’s ETF sell-off is a sideshow

On September 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan issued its latest – Statement on Monetary Policy – where they announced that there would be no change in the overnight call rate (the policy rate). However, they also announced that they would begin selling off their holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs). Many people are unaware of what these assets are and why the Bank of Japan would be holding them. Further, the media went wild and the Japanese share market gyrated (down) upon the news, suggesting that there was something significant going on or that the ‘markets’ are just dumb. It was the latter by the way. However, this has become an issue in Japan and this blog post is about sorting through the nonsense.

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